fleet switches over from gas to electric, the grid will need to produce substantially more power. The perception of too few charging stations and where to find them persists, but this should fade in time-especially as charging stations, particularly with fast chargers, become more common. EV charging infrastructure is being built out fast, with additional support from tax incentives and government grants. Policy support from the federal government and automaker declarations all point in this direction.īut what is the timeline and what does adoption look like? Several important challenges lie ahead for policymakers and companies: fleet will be moving from gasoline toward electric in the coming decade. It seems more or less locked in that the U.S. While ADAS do indeed hold the potential to save lives, this is likely to be an uncertain decade as these technologies are adopted. There are also concerns about the marketing of some of the systems-particularly relevant to dealers-that may promise more “self-drive” than the systems are prepared to deliver at present. Surveys suggest a degree of skepticism as well among the general public about self-driving cars, and there have been several fatal crashes involving these vehicles. Safety advocates, as well as advocates concerned about potential job losses from automated vehicles, have applauded the order, hoping it will cause companies to proceed carefully when deploying or even testing these new technologies. In June 2021, NHTSA issued a Standing General Order requiring companies to submit a wide range of data on vehicles operating in any sort of autonomous mode. In a shift from both the Obama and Trump administrations, the Biden administration is more closely scrutinizing the performance of these vehicles. Other versions are closer to what self-driving vehicles may eventually become. Most are relatively modest and simply maintain speed, as with traditional cruise control, but are also able to automatically reduce speed when the vehicle is behind a slower-moving vehicle traveling in the same lane. Such systems, including Tesla’s Autopilot program, cover a wide range of capabilities. The type of ADAS under the most scrutiny is advanced cruise control. NHTSA is currently developing a regulatory mandate to require AEB in all new cars, though it may take several years for a new rule to be finalized. Automatic emergency braking (AEB) is the top regulatory priority for automation at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Lane-keeper assist has been widely embraced and likely has already saved lives by preventing crashes. Policymaker response to these systems varies as much as the systems themselves. Currently being developed and deployed by automakers, they include features like lane-keeper assist, automatic emergency braking and advanced cruise control. More relevant right now are advanced driver assist systems (ADAS)-a broad category that captures several different kinds of systems. That future may eventually happen, but most of us probably won’t see it before 2030. When most people think about automated vehicles (AVs), they tend to picture a future where cars simply drive themselves, with the humans on board sitting there like passengers in a taxi. And although the big bipartisan infrastructure bill was signed into law back in November, it may take a few years to see the fruits of individual projects. In addition, the way we pay for infrastructure could be changing, as policymakers look at congestion pricing and other possible replacements for the gas tax. Electric vehicles are also coming-a major transition for the fleet. During this time, automated systems will achieve their biggest impact by helping to make humans better drivers rather than by taking over the driving task themselves. Technology and policy shifts will have big impacts on driving over the course of the 2020s.
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